Martin says time to ‘get on with the work’ following Ireland’s general election

Fianna Fail is on course to secure the most seats in the Dail parliament, with party leader Mr Martin poised for another stint in the role of taoiseach.

As the arduous count process enters its third day on Monday, with more than 160 of the Dail’s 174 seats now filled, the return of an administration involving Fianna Fail and Fine Gael now looks a far more likely prospect than any government including the long-time main opposition party, Sinn Fein.

The two centrist parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century, and who shared power in the last coalition, both ruled out governing with Sinn Fein before Friday’s election, so it seems unlikely that either would countenance that option if they could form a workable coalition together.

Despite being set to emerge with the most seats, it has not been all good news for Fianna Fail.

The party’s health minister, Stephen Donnelly, became one of the biggest casualties of the election so far when he lost his seat in Wicklow in the early hours of Monday morning.

Mr Donnelly was always predicted to face a fight in the constituency after boundary changes saw it reduced from five to four seats.

He was beaten to the fourth and final seat by Fine Gael’s Edward Timmins, who was the running mate of party leader and Taoiseach Simon Harris, who topped the poll in that area.

If it is to be a reprise of the Fianna Fail/Fine Gael governing partnership of the last mandate, one of the major questions is around the position of taoiseach, and whether the parties will once again take turns to hold the Irish premiership during the lifetime of the new government.

The outcome in 2020 saw the parties enter a coalition on the basis that the holder of the premier position would be exchanged midway through the term.

Mr Martin took the role for the first half of the mandate, with Leo Varadkar taking over in December 2022. Current Fine Gael leader Mr Harris succeeded Mr Varadkar as taoiseach when he resigned from the role earlier this year.

However, this time Fianna Fail appears well placed to increase its seat lead over Fine Gael, compared with the last election when the parties were much closer.

The size of the disparity in party numbers is likely to draw focus on the rotating taoiseach arrangement, raising questions as to whether it will be re-run in the next coalition and, if it is, on what terms.

On Sunday, Simon Coveney, a former deputy leader of Fine Gael, said a coalition that did not repeat the rotating taoiseach arrangement in some fashion would be a “difficult proposition” for his party.

Meanwhile, Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe said he would be making the case for Mr Harris to have another opportunity to serve as taoiseach.

Mr Martin would not be drawn on the issue of coalition make-up on Sunday evening, insisting there was “very little point” in discussing government formation until seats are finalised.

“I think the sensible thing is to await the completion of all counts,” he said.

The current deputy premier added: “We’ll let the dust settle and savour the moment. We’ll then be in a position over the next couple of days to assess the landscape, devise our strategies.”

Later, in a speech after counting in his Cork constituency had finished, Tanaiste Mr Martin said: “The people have spoken, let us now get on with the work.”

One of the other main stories of the election is the near wipeout of the Green Party, which was the junior partner in the outgoing coalition.

The party has lost 11 of the 12 seats it won in 2020, including that held by media minister Catherine Martin, with leader and children’s minister Roderic O’Gorman clinging on to remain its sole representative in the Dail.

Fianna Fail secured the most first preference votes in the proportional representation contest, taking 21.9% to Fine Gael’s 20.8%. Sinn Fein came in third on 19%.

While Sinn Fein’s vote share represented a marked improvement on its disappointing showing in June’s local elections in Ireland, it is still significantly down on the 24.5% poll-topping share it secured in the 2020 general election.

The final breakdown of first preferences also flips the result of Friday night’s exit poll, which suggested Sinn Fein was in front on 21.1%, with Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fail on 19.5%.

While giving a good gauge of the parties’ expected returns, first preference shares do not necessarily correlate to seats won, with those depending on the complex and often unpredictable way vote transfers are allocated.

If Fianna Fail and Fine Gael return to power, they could need one of the Dail’s smaller parties to reach the required 88 seats to form a majority.

Another option may see the two parties seek the support of independent TDs.

The Social Democrats and the Irish Labour Party, which both had a good election, appear the most realistic junior partners this time round.